Joke only?

Last week, President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo cracked a joke that had the opposition and her critics seriously thinking about what her real plans are one she steps down from the presidency in 2010. Speaking at the Subic Bay Freeport last Wednesday, Ms Arroyo said: “Who knows? I may run for Congress in my hometown." Then she flashed a wide grin that was shown on national television by the government station NBN.

Opposition Sen. Aquilino Pimentel Sr. said the joke (if it was a joke) “betrayed her intent to stay in power." Sen. Alan Peter Cayetano speculated that she wants to be prime minister in a prospective parliament that would be established through an amendment of the Constitution. He said it makes no sense for her to become a member of the House of Representatives because only a president is immune from prosecution. (Still, a position in Congress -- or in Parliament, in case the Constitution is amended -- would give her a platform from which she can defend herself and possibly avoid a fate similar to that of former President Joseph Estrada.)

If what Ms Arroyo said was not really a joke, then the people have cause to be alarmed and to be afraid. She may be planning to do a Marcos. (President Ferdinand E. Marcos imposed martial law on Sept. 21, 1972, a year before he was to complete his second term as president.) She said in 2002, on the occasion of the martyrdom of Jose Rizal on Dec. 30, that she was not running for election, only to reverse herself in October 2003 and announce that was seeking a full six-year term as president. She ran in 2004 and was proclaimed president although up to now the legitimacy of her presidency remains in question, largely because of the “Hello Garci" issue.

From 2004 up to now, she has spent a great part of her time strengthening her hold on power and shoring up her defenses against continuing challenges to the legitimacy of her presidency. And it is believed that because her position is tenuous, she has come to depend more and more on the military for support. That is why, her critics say, she cannot act more forcefully on the issue of political killings because she would be going against the secret anti-insurgency plans of top military generals.

Depending on one’s viewpoint, Ms Arroyo has already done enough good for the country and she can afford to rest on her laurels in 2010 -- or she has done enough damage and she should finally retire from politics to give other, younger leaders a chance to serve the nation. It should be enough honor for her to be known as the longest-serving president in the post-Ferdinand Marcos period.

Ms Arroyo should take a hint from her approval ratings, which have been consistently low if not negative. The latest survey by the poll group Social Weather Stations, done June 27-30, showed that satisfaction with her has stayed neutral, with 39 percent satisfied and 42 dissatisfied, for a net rating of -3. A Pulse Asia survey in the last three months said 34 percent of the people were critical of Ms Arroyo’s performance, while 30 percent approved of her. She is the only president in the post-Marcos period who has had a long, unbroken string of negative net satisfaction ratings in nearly four years (2004-2007), from a low of -33 in May 2005 to a high of -3 in June 2007.

She should also take a hint from the results of the recent senatorial elections, which, despite the use of a lot of public funds and government machinery and the intensive efforts of leaders and campaigners to make administration candidates win, ended in a 7-3-2 victory for the opposition. Are these signs that the people love and admire her, and would like her to stay in government, or possibly, even lead them again?

Ms Arroyo should know when to stop. It’s a good thing the impeachment move is not being pursued; for one thing, the House of Representatives is firmly under the control of administration congressmen and no such move will prosper there.

She and her political allies should abandon all plans to have the Constitution amended to allow Ms Arroyo to run for member of Parliament, and then, possibly aspire for the post of prime minister.

Ms Arroyo’s announcement that she will run for congressman was a joke? If she does run for congresswoman (or member of Parliament), the joke will be on the long-suffering and long-seething Filipino people.